North America: No change in barley crop forecasts this month

There are no changes in the production levels for Canada and the USA, at 6.8 mln and 2.4 mln tonnes respectively, and a very tight supply situation across North America remains, RMI Analytics said in their December report.

Discussions regarding imports from other regions seem to have quieted for the time being but this does not preclude that interest to ramp up again as availability of malting barley is expected to decline rapidly in early 2022. For the time being there are sufficient stocks, and management of variable quality is underway but the situation is tight.

The analysts continue to monitor the soil moisture conditions across North America, given the drought conditions experienced in 2021, and it remains very dry. This is still a significant concern for crop 2022, as deficit subsoil moisture would increase the crop risk (yield) associated. Dry conditions and high input costs may still favour barley for crop 2022 plantings.

China’s imports of barley remains strong (Ukraine and France shipped 1.3 mln tonnes in October), and given the drought result in 2021, the RMI analysts anticipate a growing pent-up demand from China for Canadian malting barley quality. If realized, this would show up as very strong demand for Canada’s barley in crop 2022.

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